Foreword

The Frog and the Lawn-mower

How Good Intentions Lead to Bad Decisions

Once upon a time, a frog sitting in some long grass heard a roaring monster approaching. The first time, the frog sat still hoping not to be noticed, but when the monster returned it jumped further into the long grass. It kept on doing this until there was no more long grass into which to jump.

The monster was a lawn mower that I was pushing and the frog did not turn into a handsome prince. Had it jumped out onto the cut grass I would have avoided it. As it was, its actions put it in grave danger of being mashed. Luckily, I saw it so that, although it may not have lived happily ever after, it survived that hour.

This incident occurred soon after the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the former U.S.S.R., and the media were full of reports of the fallout from it spreading across Europe, and even being detected in Canada. Before going out to cut the grass I had heard on CBC Radio that, despite assurances from federal authorities that the radioactivity, though detectable, was not dangerous, some parents were keeping their children indoors. Apparently they were unaware of the fact that the radiation due to naturally occurring radon in the average dwelling was about a hundred times the radiation from the Chernobyl fallout experienced outside. These people, like the frog, from a lack of knowledge of the facts, were making decisions that resulted in consequences the exact opposite of what they intended.

Unfortunately, such misunderstanding is all too typical of the public's reaction to radiation and nuclear energy. As Mark Twain said: "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." At the individual level, people are being subjected to unnecessary anxiety that they and their children are being harmed: at the national level, there is danger of adopting unwise policies that may jeopardize the health, economy and environment of this and future generations.

The aim of this book is therefore to explain nuclear energy in simple terms, and to discuss the various controversial issues surrounding it in a manner that lets readers reach their own conclusions. No prior knowledge of science is required; and the only mathematics required is simple arithmetic.

Why do I consider myself competent to write it? In more than six decades involvement in nuclear energy I have moved from research through development and management to consultancy in regulation of the industry. Along the way I have worked on a variety of different reactor types, and management of their wastes; and I have authored publications on most aspects of nuclear energy. However, my most relevant qualification is the fact that since the mid-1970s I have interacted with the public through open meetings, debates, newspapers, radio and television. Along the way, I have learned the extent of the information (and misinformation) on nuclear energy on which people base their opinions. All these, but especially my participation in several nuclear inquiries, have given me experience in answering questions without using technical jargon; and an understanding of which questions members of the public want answered.

This experience has taught me that only a small fraction of the population, including me, is completely comfortable with nuclear energy, seeing it as the energy source of choice for many applications for reasons that will be explained; that another small fraction is vociferously opposed to it; and that most people are vaguely uneasy about it, fear radiation and believe that the subject is too complex for them to understand. It is some of these average individuals that I hope to reach with this book, to show them that anyone can understand enough to form their own opinions on the issues.

Accordingly, the book is divided into three parts. Part B, which discusses the issues of public concern, is the biggest. First, however, some necessary background on the basics of nuclear energy and its history is presented in Part A. Finally, Part C makes some suggestions for how readers can reach their own decisions on the issues that have been discussed. The first time a technical term is used it is shown in italics and its meaning is explained: subsequently, this explanation can be found by clicking on Technical Terms at the end of each chapter, and then on the appropriate term. When a frequently used abbreviation first appears it is spelled out. All abbreviations are spelled out in the appendix Abbreviations, and a link to the appendix is provided at the end of each chapter.

The figures in Chapter 3 were previously published in "Nuclear Power in Canada: the CANDU System" (AECL Report AECL-6328) by the present author. Some other chapters include rough sketches. These are deliberately drawn freehand to illustrate trends: for actual values the original documents should be consulted. Those in Chapter 6 are based on detailed graphs in "Modelling Future Industrialization of the World and the Necessity of Nuclear Power" by J.V. Jovanovich, at an international meeting on the lessons of Chernobyl, Smolensk, 1996 April 15 - 18; except for the one on market penetration which is based on a detailed graph in "T.A. for Energy Needs of the World" by C. Marchetti while at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Those in Chapter 9 are based on detailed graphs in "Environmental Impact Statement on the Concept for Disposal of Canada's Nuclear Fuel Waste" (Report AECL-10711, Chapter 2).

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